January 10, 2013

ROECKER PREDICTS OSCAR NOMS WITH 80% ACCURACY -- ON PAR OR BETTER THAN AWARDS EXPERTS WITH THE WRAP, ENTERTAINMENT WEEKLY, HOLLYWOOD REPORTER, THE ENVELOPE & MORE (WITH SPOILERS INCLUDED ACCURACY GOES TO 85%)



ORIGINAL PREDICTIONS POSTED JANUARY 10, 2013, 12:10 A.M.
* Correct Prediction
*^Correct Prediction Against What Most Industry Experts Predicted
** Spoiler Prediction Correct
^^Absolute Shocker of the Season
+Nomination Not Predicted

Best Picture  (RR 7 out of 9 correct predictions but with Spoiler 8 out of 9 correct predictions)
(New Academy rules make this one the weirdest because there could be anywhere from 5 nominees to a total of 10 based on how the votes come in throughout the various rounds of voting):

*Les Miserables
*Lincoln
*Zero Dark Thirty
*Argo
*Life of Pi
*^Amour
*Django Unchained
The Master

Spoilers: There could be two others just for shock value which would be 
**Silver Linings Playbook and probably Skyfall

+Beast of the Southern Wild


Best Actor (4/5 Correct and with Spoiler 5/5)
*Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln)
*Hugh Jackman (Les Miserables)
Stephen Hawkes (The Sessions)
*^Joquin Phoenix (The Master)
*Bradley Cooper (Silverlinings Playbook)

**Spoiler:  Denzel Washington (Flight)

Best Actress (4/5 correct)
*Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty)
Marion Cotillard (Rust and Bone)
*Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook)
*Naomi Watts (The Impossible)
*^Quvenzhane Wallis ("Beasts of the Southern Wild")

+ Emmanuelle Riva (Amour)

Spoiler:  Helen Mirren (Hitchcock)

Best Supporting Actor (5/5 Correct)
*Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln)
*Philip Seymor Hoffman (The Master)
*Alan Arkin (Argo)
*Robert DeNiro (Silverlinings Playbook)
*^Christopher Waltz (Django Unchained)

Spoiler:  Samuel L. Jackson (Django Unchained); Eddie Redmayne (Les Miserables)

Best Supporting Actress (4/5 Correct)
*Salli Field (Lincoln)
*Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables)
*Amy Adams (The Master)
*Helen Hunt (The Sessions)
Nicole Kidman (The Paperboy)

+Jacki Weaver (Silver Linings Playbook) -- if i had to be wrong about one Supporting Actress Nom I am absolutely thrilled with Jacki Weaver's nomination -- she deserves it more than DeNiro for sure!

Spoiler: Ann Dowd (Compliance)

Best Director (3/5 correct)
^^ (NO NOM) Kathryn Bigelow (Zero Dark 30)
*Steven Spielberg (Lincoln)
^^(NO NOM) Ben Affleck (Argo)
*Ang Lee (Life of Pi)
*David O Russell (Silverlingings Playbook)

+^^Michael Haneke (Amour)
+^^Benh Zeitlin (Beasts of the Southern Wild) 


Spoiler:  Tom Hooper (Les Miserables)

Let me tell you this, a lot of people in Vegas lost their retirement fund on this one particular category -- Everyone from The Wrap to Deadline Hollywood, to Hollywood Reporter, Variety, Envelope said sure bets were Bigelow, Spielberg and Affleck.  I'm sort of shocked by Bigelow's snub but she also won recently and the industry is a little nervous about how she actually found out all the info that she did.  However, Ben Affleck's snub is unfathomable -- How David O Russell can get nominated over Affleck is absolutely unjust. 

TOTAL CORRECT PREDICTIONS 27/34 (80% ACCURACY)
TOTAL CORRECT PREDICTIONS W/ SPOILERS INCLUDED 29/34 (85% ACCURACY)