February 26, 2011

BeDifferently Oscar Predictions

I've been asked a lot about the Oscars this year as at times everything seems to be a sure thing -- Portman, Firth, Bale, Leo, "Speech" and at times it all seems up in the air -- Bening? Franco? Rush? Adams/Steinfeld? "...Network"?

I really believe things have been established now after the Screen Actors Guild Awards. One thing I'm betting on is that the combo of Franco and Hathaway -- although no Martin/Baldwin are going to be very clever and...well, young.

Here are my predictions for tomorrow nights movie kudofest in the top categories (and a bonus random one!).


BEST PICTURE


The Nominees:
'Black Swan'
'The Fighter'
'Inception'
'The Kids Are All Right'
'The King's Speech'
'127 Hours'
'The Social Network'
'Toy Story 3'
'True Grit'
'Winter's Bone'

When a picture wins top honors from the Producers Guild, Directors Guild and Screen Actors Guild of America, it’s a pretty good assumption that it has the Oscar locked. However, you saw who won Best New Artist over Bieber so crazy s*&$ can happen…

OSCAR: The the the , kkkkkkkkkkkking’s sppp = spsseech

BEST DIRECTOR

The Nominees:
Darren Aronofsky, 'Black Swan'
Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, 'True Grit'
David Fincher, 'The Social Network'
Tom Hooper, 'The King's Speech'
David O'Russell, 'The Fighter'

Oh it sucks to be Tom Hooper! David Fincher has way more going for him at this point even though King’s Speech is going to win Best Picture (oops – um “spoiler alert”)....1) he made one of the most talked about movies in years that was critically and commercially successful 2) he is one of the most well respected film makers in Hollywood and 3) (and this is the Tom Hooper nail in the coffin – HE’S NEVER WON AN OSCAR). “nuff said.
OSCAR: David Fincher (but Hooper should if that makes you feel any better, Mr. Hooper…)

BEST ACTOR

The Nominees:
Javier Bardem, 'Biutiful'
Jeff Bridges, 'True Grit'
Jesse Eisenberg, 'The Social Network'
Colin Firth, 'The King's Speech'
James Franco, '127 Hours'

OSCAR: Colin Firth

BEST ACTRESS
The Nominees:
Annette Bening, 'The Kids Are All Right'
Nicole Kidman, 'Rabbit Hole'
Jennifer Lawrence, 'Winter's Bone'
Natalie Portman, 'Black Swan'
Michelle Williams, 'Blue Valentine'

Let me keep you in suspense for a moment…I find it very interesting and very ballsy actually that the studio behind Bening’s “The Kids are All Right” actually are doing a “body of work” Oscar campaign for her. What’s that mean? People get Oscars some years not because of that particular performance but because it’s time (Nicole Kidman, Susan Lucci…oh, wait..) However, this has been the “Don’t ask, don’t tell” of the Hollywood community – and Bening’s studio has taken out BIG PHAT ads in all the trades that say things like “a stellar career of constant milestones – The Grifters (she should have won for that, btw), American Beauty…” and then they have critic’s comments in quotes by each “milestone.” Bless their hearts. I guess they figure – no one’s gonna remember the ads they’re just gonna remember Bening acknowledging Natalie Portman as she’s fondling Oscar from the podium. Well, I don’t think that’s gonna happen. Natalie Portman. Why? She’s won tons, she’s preggers/engaged and she had a huge hit with Ashton Kutcher (frankly, anyone deserves the Oscar if they can have a hit with Ashton…)

OSCAR: Natalie Portman

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

The Nominees:
Christian Bale, 'The Fighter'
John Hawkes, 'Winter's Bone'
Jeremy Renner, 'The Town'
Mark Ruffalo, 'The Kids Are All Right'
Geoffrey Rush, 'The King's Speech'

OSCAR: Christian Bale

The Academy LOVES this type of performance and people want to give a nod to Mark Walberg cause they just love him funky bunches! Bale is like no other actor - -even Mr. Depp – he transforms himself completely (American Psycho, anyone?). And he plays a super hot Batman.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

The Nominees:
Amy Adams, 'The Fighter'
Helena Bonham Carter, 'The King's Speech'
Melissa Leo, 'The Fighter'
Hailee Steinfeld, 'True Grit'
Jacki Weaver, 'Animal Kingdom'

OSCAR: If Hailee Steinfeld who loves to talk about “never taking even one acting class” gets this award by some act of payola I’m moving to Canada. But she won’t because Melissa Leo was so FREAKIN’ trashy and awesome in The Fighter. “I’ve never taken an acting class and I’ve never won an Oscar…”

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

The Nominees:
'How to Train Your Dragon'
'The Illusionist'
'Toy Story 3'

Honestly, it should win Best Picture (don’t hate…if you haven’t seen it rent it…then come crawling back to me…)

OSCAR: 'Toy Story 3'


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

The Nominees:
'Another Year'
'The Fighter'
'Inception'
'The Kids Are All Right'
'The King's Speech'

OSCAR: The King's Speech'

Listen, honestly again, if Inception wins it will only be because no one understood a frickin’ thing but they don’t want to appear to be that stupid so they’ll vote for it since they’re so Avant garde.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The Nominees:
'127 Hours'
'The Social Network'
'Toy Story 3'
'True Grit'
'Winter's Bone'

OSCAR: The Social Network

Aaron Sorkin's is loved by all in Hollywood – TV and film equally and he’s known for writing really fast-talking scripts and screenplays (well, he was a Coke-head for so many years so of course the talking’s going to be fast but I guess that would mean it also would only be one-sided…anywho…it’s a lock that he’ll win this..I just hope he brings Kleenex in case he gets a runny nose…

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

The Nominees:
'Biutiful' (Mexico)
'Dogtooth' (Greece)
'In a Better World' (Denmark)
'Incendies' (Canada)
'Outside the Law' (Algeria)

OSCAR: WHO CARES


BEST ART DIRECTION

The Nominees:
'Alice in Wonderland'
'Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part I'
'Inception'
'The King's Speech'
'True Grit'

OSCAR: KING’S SPEECH WILL PROBABLY GET THIS ONE TOO DAMMIT BUT HAVE YOU SEEN ALICE IN WONDERLAND? KING’S SPEECH PROBABLY WILL GRAB IT BECAUSE THEY WON THE ART DIRECTORS GUILD AWARD (AM I AMAZING AT PREDICTING THESE THINGS?). BUT IF I WERE BURTON’S ARTISTIC TEAM I’D BE MAD AS A...what? I wasn't going to say it? What I was going to say, hater, is that "I would be made as an Edward Scissorshands-as-Willy-Wonka-playing-the-Mad-Hatter." Bite me.


BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

The Nominees:
'Black Swan'
'Inception'
'The King's Speech'
'The Social Network'
'True Grit'

OSCAR: 'True Grit'
(What the hell else will they get if they don’t get this one? )


BEST COSTUME DESIGN


The Nominees:
'Alice in Wonderland'
'I Am Love'
'The King's Speech'
'The Tempest'
'True Grit'

The Academy loves previous Oscar winning designer Jenny Beavan and chances are good people will want to give King’s Speech multiple Oscars since it’s getting Best Picture. But again, “see Best Art Direction” but have you SEEN ALICE IN WONDERLAND? I mean the Oscar should go to that costume designer just for being so brilliant that she put A MATCHING PAIR OF SHOES ON HELENA BONHAM CARTER =-- I MEAN THAT IS MAD GENIUS!!!)

BEST FILM EDITING

The Nominees:
'Black Swan'
'The Fighter'
'The King's Speech'
'127 Hours'
'The Social Network'

The stuttering sequences in “King’s Speech” actually were not performed by Colin Firth – it actually was 382 editors cutting and chopping a perfectly presented monologue…BUT Social Network’s gonna be hard to be…be…be…gracious toward when it wins Best Editing.

OSCAR: The Social Network

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

The Nominees:
'How to Train Your Dragon'
'Inception'
'The King's Speech'
'127 Hours'
'The Social Network'

OSCAR: Anything by Lady Gaga apparently

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

The Nominees:
'Coming Home' - 'Country Strong'
'I See the Light' - 'Tangled'
'If I Rise' - '127 Hours'
'We Belong Together' - 'Toy Story 3'

This is the only category that I’m going to give a “should” and “WTF probably will” answer.

OSCAR: (should is “If I Rise” from “127 Hours” despite it being performed by Dido is a gorgeous song that plays out in the movie like another character. WTF Will – Randy Newman wrote “We Belong Together” – the same guy who wrote “Short People” and he has a gaggle of Oscars and he’s the only name anyone recognizes in this category. Great….

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

The Nominees:
'Alice in Wonderland'
'Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part I'
'Hereafter'
'Inception'
'Iron Man 2'

“Oh, you didn’t understand when the waterfall sky became the cockroaches nesting ground and the pretty woman had to shoot the tree with caged rattle snake hearts that grew wings with Leo's talking face...or not? Clearly you were not brung up to be as totally classy as me were du jour.”

OSCAR: Inception…for those little minds who don’t have the faculties or the staff to understand “Inception” – it comes from the latin root word which means “to catch a ball that is thrown by the other team.”