March 7, 2010

BEST DIRECTOR AND BEST PICTURE WINNERS PREDICTIONS

Yes, it's less than 2 hours until the telecast and i still haven't posted about best director and best picture.  In almost 20 years of doing these predictions i've never had a more difficult time predicting these two categories.

BEST DIRECTOR
JAMES CAMERON, AVATAR
KATHRYN BIGELOW, HURT LOCKER (AND CAMERON'S EX WIFE, BTW)
JASON REITMAN, UP IN THE AIR
LEE DANIELS, PRECIOUS
QUENTIN TARANTINO, INGLORIOUS BASTARDS

this category is between two people and two people only:  Cameron and Bigelow.  In the history of the academy a woman has never won a Best Director oscar -- only a hand-full, including Barbra Streisand, has even ever been nominated.  With this being a war docupic (very manly), you would think if it were going to be and the sad record would be broken this year, a very deserving Bigelow would get the golden guy in the end.  i think she should have done it this year.  Cameron already has one for the other biggest, most successful movie in history "Titanic" -- and that was a great visual effects movie with a lot of great story lines.  Avatar at the end of the day is the BEST VISUAL EFFECTS MOVIE OF ALL TIME that cameron made happen. to me just because it took 14 years to make and more than $600 million, doesn't mean it's the best FILM of the year but it does say something about the man behind it all.  Cameron appears to be the odds-on favorite and although I would love to be meeting Bigelow at my locker after school today to go celebrate, I feel like instead I'm going to be wearing something recycled, something nav'i, something biodegradable and something blue.

BEST PICTURE (there are 10 this year and i'm only going t address the ones that have a snow-ball's chance):

AVATAR
INGLORIOUS BASTARDS
HURT LOCKER

this is the race.  plain and simple.  you have the biggest picture in history.  you have potentially the first woman in history win an Oscar.  You have a potential dark horse that could steal it from them both.  AVATAR -- not in my mind the best picture because the story line was so tried and and blue that I never really got into the characters or the love story but with something that ground breaking you didn't have to.  Hurt Locker was amazing and filmed incredibly and the story was so appealing it's hard not to consider this the front-runner for sure.   but in my twisted little mind I wonder if Academy members are thinking the same thing -- how can we choose between AVATAR and HURT LOCKER?  Maybe they are saying (as am I) that they won't be able to choose and it will go to Inglorious Bastards (a movie I found t be very difficult to watch because of the subject matter and yet I watched every second of it).  to me, that's what a best film should do.  Make you so uncomfortable or so moved that you are fixated with everything happening on the screen.  I didn't feel that way about AVATAR or HURT LOCKER.  I'm going with Inglorious Bastards.